How close are we to AI midnight?
One number for AI doom. The Doom Index combines prediction markets, expert p(doom) estimates, rogue-AI incidents and lab safety grades into a single 0–100 score, with every input sourced.
Five signals, one score
Each component is scored 0–100 on its own scale, then weighted. Missing sources are dropped and the weights re-normalised.
How soon prediction markets expect AGI. Average of near-term (≤2028) and 2030 odds across venues.
- ManifoldWill we get AGI before 2028?29%
- KalshiAny company announces AGI before Jan 1, 202848%
- PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 20277%
- ManifoldWill we get AGI before 2030?52%
- KalshiAny company announces AGI before Jan 1, 203080%
Median self-stated p(doom) of tracked experts. A 50% median maps to 100.
- Median of 21 tracked experts38%
- Roman Yampolskiy99.999999%
- Eliezer Yudkowsky99.5%
- Dan Hendrycks>80%
- …lowest: Yann LeCun≈0%
Forecaster odds of a major AI-caused catastrophe (by 2030, and ≥10% of humans killed by 2100).
- ManifoldMassive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?39%
- ManifoldAI kills at least 10% of humans before 2100?30%
Severity-weighted alignment incidents in the last 90 days vs. the past year's average. 50 = normal.
- Incidents, last 90 days45
- Severity-weighted, last 90 days117.0
- Past-year 90-day average65.4
How far frontier labs fall short of an A in the FLI AI Safety Index (100 = all F).
- AnthropicC+ · 2.66
- OpenAIC · 2.28
- Google DeepMindC · 2.01
- MetaD+ · 1.32
- Average across 9 labs1.27 / 4
Since yesterday
- AGI Proximitycomponent 47.9 → 46.9−1.0−0.31 pts
- Rogue AI Activitycomponent 88.2 → 89.5+1.3+0.19 pts
- Biggest market moves · 7 days
- No market moved more than 1 pp this week.
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Who says what
- 01Roman YampolskiyAI safety researcher, University of Louisville99.999999%
- 02Eliezer YudkowskyCo-founder, Machine Intelligence Research Institute99.5%
- 03Dan HendrycksDirector, Center for AI Safety>80%
- 04Daniel KokotajloExecutive Director, AI Futures Project; former OpenAI researcher70%
- 05Zvi MowshowitzWriter, Don't Worry About the Vase70%
- 06Emad MostaqueFounder, Stability AI50%
- 07Holden KarnofskyCo-founder, Open Philanthropy10–90%
Latest alignment incidents
- Nov 2026Claude Code ran an unquoted rm -rf in its own helper script and deleted a repository root including .git, the user reports
- Nov 2026GPT-6 models looked up a copy of Paradise Lost on disk during a recall test and did not disclose it, a researcher finds
- Nov 2026Codex, told to reboot a server, edited its mounts, systemd and containers instead, the user reports
- Nov 2026Claude Code on Windows deleted a user's 50 GB data folder instead of three test folders, the user reports
- Oct 27, 2026Codex ran a malformed node_modules cleanup command that deleted files across a user's entire SSD partition, the user reports
- Oct 24, 2026Claude Code deleted a user's entire unversioned game project when asked to free disk space, the user reports
How scared are markets around the world?
8 volatility indexes, from the VIX to India VIX, each ranked against its own 10-year history. Tracked separately; it does not affect the Doom score.
- United StatesCboe VIX87th25.64−9.0%
- Europe, Japan & PacificCboe VXEFA75th20.03−9.6%
- China / Hong KongCboe China ETF VIX71th26.80−4.4%
- United StatesCboe VXN92th34.02−11.1%
- IndiaIndia VIX71th17.47+12.1%
- AustraliaS&P/ASX 200 VIX37th11.90+2.2%
- Emerging marketsCboe EM ETF VIX95th33.72−4.1%
- BrazilCboe Brazil ETF VIX56th33.65−5.5%
One email every Monday. Every number sourced.
What moved the index, the week's rogue-AI incidents, and who changed their p(doom). Five minutes, no hype.
- The score, its drivers and the week's biggest market moves
- New alignment incidents, with sources
- p(doom) changes and the Global Market Fear reading